Round 2. Thursday Picks

goudlockTonight Euroleague games should be very attractive and interesting. CSKA will try to revenge Maccabi,  newcomers Turow and Neptunas open Euroleague season at their arenas, Barcelona comes to Milan where they lost last season by 30 points.. Hope we will have a good evening tonight. 

Turow – Fenerbahce Ulker

I really like the way how Turow played against PAO. They forced them to play uptempo game with them, they move ball really quick, they have balanced attack and were very good in finishing attacks. But defensively they were not able to show anything close to Euroleague level defense.

Tonight they will host Ulker, which has powerful offense, which has been struggling against good defense and slow pace their last opponents forced them to play at. But against Polish team I expect Obradovic team to explode in offense, and defensively Ulker was quite bad last season and this year they also don’t have great defenders.

I expect high paced game with both teams to score over 78 points. I expected to see 165 total line here.

Pick: over 161.5 @ 1.94 Pinnacle

Neptunas – Crvena Zvezda

Neptunas roster was a litle bit overestimated by me in Round 1, but also it is notable that Neptunas played below its standarts. This team has really good shooters, but in Vittoria they scored just 4/26 3-pointers. They simply must improve in this area playing at home, because it will be very difficult to score from the paint where B.Marjanovic will be a king. Neptunas don’t have real centers and I hardly seem them scoring easy points in one on one situations. Normally, we should expect Neptunas trying to impose game pace as high as possible to force Crvena Zvezda leave Boban Marjanovic on the bench.

On other side we have Crvena Zvezda, which is looking really good at the start of the season. Class difference is not so big between these teams to expect easy victory for Zvezda tonight. They play faster game this year, but their game on both ends of the floor looks better. They are more experienced on this level and has advantage almost in all possible match ups. But currenct handicap line is too high for them.

I agree with total early line move from 154 to 156.5 points, but there is no value in pre-match line at the moment to back any side. We should for in-play markets and catch over there.

Galatasaray – Valencia

Galatasaray has better team, but they fail to show level of last season basketball.. Club has financial problems and players don’t give 100% in the game and trainings. Hard to trust turkish team in such situations. But I really can’t see value in Valencia victory.. Value is on the host side for me, but I simply can’t trust them money at the moment. I prefer to take one bet from this match, where I see more confidence

As you know, Arslan is out for tonight game. It means that Arroyo will play alone at PG position. He failed in Belgrade, but at Istanbul I expect him to show different level. In TBL he is doing about 15 field goals attempts per game  per game. He can score 12 points only from 2 pts zone area + add 1-2 3-pointers and 2-4 FT. I expect him to finish in 14-20 points today.

Pick: Arroyo over 13 pts @ 1.84 (marathon, favbet, unibet)

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CSKA – Maccabi

Bayern – Panathinaikos

 

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