Euroleague Round 4 (October 26-27). Betting Tips and Games Preview

Sarunas Jasikevicius

Euroleague competition heating up and on Thursday and Friday we will see games of Round 4. What interesting awaits us there?

  • Is Zalgiris able to beat two Spanish powerhouses in one week?
  • Crvena Zvezda is 3-0 ATS this season as underdog. How good they are as favs against Maccabi?
  • Khimki 0-3 ATS but still getting too much respect against Olympiacos. Bookies waits for upset in Greece for the hosts?
  • Milan playing so well but still winless. Game against Barcelona is must win for them. Are they capable of doing this?
Date Match Prediction Pick Odds Units Bookie Result Profit
26/10/2017 Armani Milano – Barcelona 84  – 78

After 2 consecutive defeats to big names like CSKA, Fenerbahce and Real Madrid, Milan finaly in position to win. But that’s how Euroleague line works now. 0-3 team gets -4 line against Barcelona at home. It’s really almost impossible to find easy bets these days in this competition!

S.Piangiani use 8-man rotation and so far his team showed really good basketball, but they always failed to finish the game in style. They had 16 points lead in Moscow, they had close end with Fenerbahce and lost in overtime and were leading against Real at HT. But second halves (where fatique becomes a factor) they failed.

Barcelona lost two games in a row (CZ and Zalgiris) and wants to stop this losing streak. Sanders is out, but Claver joined the team.

Catalans has more quality players at the bench, but they are still a new team, that needs time to polish the game. Milan looks better on the field, but the question is about their ability to close games. I would take Milan win if it would be priced at 1.95. At current odds I don’t see much value in taking them.

Total line is hard to read. Milan prefers to control pace, but their defense failed in all 3 Euroleague games. Barcelona like to push the pace and also has defensive problems. Offensively both can score. Logic says that we should see average paced game with high scoring quality. I have no confidence in total line here and will skip it.

 26/10/2017 Zalgiris Kaunas – Real Madrid
Pablo Lasso team arrives to Kaunas as Euroleague leader with 3-0 record. But they are missing important parts (Lull, Kuzmic, Randolph) of their puzzle and on the distance that should start playing against them. They have NBA level playing Doncic, but all others are quite average Euroleague level players. I don’t that such players as Campazzo, Causeur, Taylor, Fernandez, Randle, Maciulius can be a difference makers on this level. So it would be interesting to see Doncic alone can beat teams like Zalgiris on the road. 
 
Zalgiris so far looking great in away games, but at home they always get a little bit too much respect and can’t cover the handicaps. They had 6-9 record last season and started new season with ATS loss against Crvena Zvezda. Dee Bost still can’t help Zalgiris to distribute the ball, so Pangos and Micic will continue the job. 
 
Real has solid roster and some top material within it. Zalgiris at home is not easy to beat and if they will play with same quality as they did against Barcelona (just 9 turnovers) they can take important win. But normaly Zalgiris doing much more mistakes and Real can punish for that. 
 
I don’t see enough value to offer something for betting here. 
26/10/2017 Crvena Zvezda – Maccabi 75 – 79

I think that Maccabi has more quality roster, but line favors Crvena Zvezda, which is showing great ATS form (3-0). But now CZ gets favorite status and this is aa different story for such teams.

Crvena Zvezda has 3 overs, while Maccabi holds 3-0 under record. In terms of space this should be average-paced game with defensive pressure from both sides, but at the moment there is no signals to trust both team defenses.

26/10/2017 Olympiakos BC – Khimki Moscow  78 – 72
Only one of these teams will survive Round 4 with a perfect record. Olympiacos (3-0) has marched to the top of the standings thanks to the stingiest defense in the competition (69.0 points allowed per game), while Khimki (3-0) has enjoyed three home games to start the season and Alexey Shved leading the charge on the court. The game marks the return of Coach Georgios Bartzokas, who led the Reds to the 2013 EuroLeague title, to Peace and Friendship Stadium.
 
I see both teams on the same quality level right now and have to agree with Olympiacos favorite status. Home court factor (4.5 pts) is the only thing that should be between these teams at the moment. 
 
Seems that we should see a lot of defense in this matchup, but 151 line already includes this factor. Better to stay way from bets here. 
27/10/2017 Efes – CSKA 72 -83
Efes without Brown, Muric and Batuk injured. Ricky Ledo should return from United States and take part in the game against CSKA. Efes lost 3 games (1-2 ATS), but they never were close to the win. And now they host top team like CSKA.

Moscow team this year looks much slower and tends to control pace instead on running the floor (at least numbers saying that for a moment). They are full and should be able to take this game quite easy.

I don’t see much value in current odds & handicap in CSKA, so my advice to wait for -3.5 handicap at in-play and take CSKA in first half or at HT. Of course, we need Efes strong start to get this line.

27/10/2017 Brose – Baskonia
Paid subscription 
27/10/2017 Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce  79 – 75
Looking to the roster strenth Fenerbahce should be a favorite due the class difference and better game quality. But there are many reasons to lay Fenerbahce at the start of the season. They are still in building process and don’t impress much on the court. And for greens this is very big game, they want to win for sure. I agree with bookies adjustments here and prefer to skip this game.
27/10/2017 Valencia – Unicaja 78 – 69

Unicaja travels to Valencia with injured Nedovic and ill Augustine. They have enough players to compete, but they will miss 2 probably most experienced players on Euroleague level. Valencia without 4 players + Green is playing with finger dislocation and Doornercamp also touched by injury.

At home Valencia should take points, but I don’t like the odds here. Total is fairly set.

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This article has 2 Comments

  1. There was a paid subscription yesterday for Zalgiris – Real pick, right?

    But today I see its changed and written: “I don’t see enough value to offer something for betting here. “..

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