After slow start bookmakers found the balance between expectations, money and public opinion. As result we have very-very strong Euroleague lines, where it’s very hard to find good bets. Actually, that kills our interest to betting on such events as Euroleague, but is this is business with its own rules.
Right before Christmas we have double gameday in Euroleague. Round 13 will be played today and tomorrow and Round 14 on December 20-21.
After last week games and Olympiacos collapse in Bamberg, only CSKA stayed in green zone of power rating as a safe team for betting and trusting your money after 13 weeks of action.
Efes, Barcelona and Valencia – are at the bottom of our investor rating.
Crvena Zvezda was at the bottom just few rounds ago, but now they are in yellow zone after winning 3 games in a row with spreads.
Crvena is hottest team in last few Euroleague rounds (3 wins over the spread) and they goes to Fenerbahce, which is 0-3 ATS in last 3 home games, when they failed to cover against Khimki and lost to Olympiacos and Zalgiris. But I think that bookies did a good work on this match. They’ve raised the total to 156.5 (should be 152), because CZ defense is so weak, that Fenerbahce should score ~85 points easily. On other Fenerbahce should be motivated to play some defense and stop CZ offense around 72-76 points.CZ +12.5 looks like most logical choice here (hot team vs. cold team), but there is no gifts in this Euroleague and I don’t see chances for another Fenerbahce upset. Obradovic is Partizan system product and he is going to show any respect and honor to CZ team. But the main reason why I don’t want take away handicap here – is value. Fenerbahce should be -13 favorite according to my records at home.
Rudy is absent for Real Madrid. Txus Vidorreta might count on all players except long-term injured.These teams already played in ACB league this season. Valencia at home lost to Real 82:86 and teams did 142 attacks. My numbers say that we should expect almost same pace today and this gives us some room for Under (See below). But on other side Valencia defense is looking so soft, that there are too much risks with bet on under. Real offense seems improved lately and if they able score 86+ points, they often relax defensively.Home avg. scoring: 1.04-1.13 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.10-1.20 pts/attack
Expected pace: 145 attacks
Expected total range: 155-169 points
So I think that best choice to wait for in-play opportunity to take Under, especially if there will be high scoring first half with slow pace.
Greek team is a title contender for me this season. They owns probably deepest and most quality bench in Euroleague. They have 10 players of Euroleague level and most of them are above the level. Just look at their last bench places. Kyle Witjer – Gonzaga University product. Very smart all-around player who can score and defend. Everyone who plays for Olympiacos are defensive specialists and all has very good shooting skills.
Bad news for the greeks that Milutinov can’t help team and Printezis got injured in training and doubtfull till last minute.
Moscow team welcomes back Vorontsevich, but Hunter and Westermann are out. CSKA had very easy road schedule so far and actually since 2nd week played just one game against top-level team – lost to Fenerbahce at home in OT. Of course they are top team with very much quality in starting five, but what about bench? Fridzon, Khriapa, Vorontsevic, Antonov, Kulagin – are below the EL level if we look long term. And I have serious doubts, that De Colo and Rodrigues will be able to run CSKA offense against Olympiacos defensive pressure (Oly is the best home defense in EL).
With or without Printezis, I can’t see Olympiacos as 4.5 points underdogs at home. They don’t have stars in their team, but they owns probably best and deepest team in competition. I see good chances for third CSKA upset in Euroleague in Greece today.
The Vitoria will not be able to count on Jayson Granger because it drag annoyance in his ankle due to a sprain. Pedro Martinez also can not count on Rinalds Malmanis, Ilimane Diop, Patricio Garino and Jordan McRae for this match. Milan has the same roster as last week in Athens with Goudelock available.
Milan is one of the slowest team in competition. Reason is simple – they don’t have run and gun players. Jerrels, Kalnietis, Micov and Theodore are old-school players, who like set up plays. Also Pianigiani like to use big center (Gudaitis and Tarczewski) and that also bring pace down.
Baskonia without Granger has limited rotation and should agree to the Milan pace. The only question is offensive efficency of the game. Last games of Baskonia ended with very high percentages (1,07-1,19 pts/attack), but they played against weak defensive teams who likes to run. This time they have Milan who wants to play half court basketball, but often fails defensively.
Home avg. scoring: 1.07-1.18 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.07-1.15 pts/attack
Expected pace: 139 attacks
Expected total range: 149-162 points
Milan 4-2 for Under at home
Barcelona – Unicaja
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