While everyone expects high scoring basketball here, there are statistical reason to go against the public. Milan is bad defensive team, but they are very slow team with just 143 attacks/game pace. Khimki owns 2nd best home defense in competition and tends to play slow against half-court teams. Game is important for Russian team, because next 2 games are on the road and with a loss and Baskonia win they will have huge pressure from Baskonia and Maccabi.
I expect Khimki to force half court offense from Milan, where their athletic and agressive defense should bring them so needed points. In Italy they won 77:71, by doing just 138 attacks.
Home avg. scoring: 1.02-1.09 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.19 pts/attack
Expected pace: 141 attacks
Expected total range: 148-161 points
Khimki 7-1 for Under in last 8 home games
Milan 8-2 for Under in last 10 road games
Anadolu Efes – Maccabi Tel Aviv
Valencia – Baskonia
Real Madrid – Panathinaikos
CSKA Moscow – Unicaja
Zalgiris – Fenerbahce
This is just third time this season, when Zalgiris get underdog status at home. They lost to Real Madrid 66:87 as +5 outsiders, and won against PAO 80:74. Kaunas team is difficult to bet at home, because they are dangerous enough to give fight to any team in Europe at own hall, but at the same time their team level is very average and that’s why they have troubles as favorite.
Everyone is healthy for S.Jasikevicius tonight. Soldout arena will do its best to support them, but opponent is very skilfull and dangerous. Euroleague champions won 6/8 games as favorite on the road, but they are 4-4 ATS in those game. So bookmakers feel them well and seems that class difference is too big for such teams as Zalgiris to fight for the points in such games. This time it will be especially hard for Kaunas to get victory, because Fenerbahce is fighting for Top-4 position and probably wants to finish 2nd. Zalgiris surprised the world by winning in Turkey, but this time Fenerbahce comes to take revenge and I rate their chances to achieve to goal as very high.
Zalgiris defense is very weak this season and solid Fenerbahce offense (3rd best after Real and CSKA) should have easy task today. Statistically Fenerbahce has good chances to score 76-86 points. Zalgiris offensively is one of the best at home, but tonight game pace will be slow. If Zalgiris will keep their shooting percentage high they has chances to score 76-80 and fight till the end. But it will be complicated, if Fener will play more seriously in defense and limit Zalgiris from scoring in up-numbers. If that happen, Kaunas will finish below 76 points and Fener will get easy victory 72:82 or close to it.
I think that best option here for betting is Fenerbahce -3.5.. but it doesn’t have enough value to take as pre-game pick. Total depends on shooting percentage – it might be 150 pts game with average scoring 160 pts if both will score with high efficiency.
Olympiacos – Brose Baskets
Barcelona – Crvena Zvezda
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