Tel Aviv holds a one-game lead over Baskonia Vitoria, with the Spaniards looking like the only real threat to the yellow-and-blue’s position in the top eight. Unicaja Malaga and Red Star Belgrade in 10th and 11th places, respectively, both lost last week and fell three games behind Tel Aviv with five games to play. Maccabi plays three of its final four regular season games on the road, adding even more significance to its final two home encounters, against Khimki and then next Thursday versus Panathinaikos, which is also one game ahead of the yellow-and-blue.
It’s a big game for Khimki too, because they doesn’t have h2h advantage over Maccabi and Baskonia and with a loss here might be in big trouble with few games left to play. But unfortunately they will play with unusual rotation. T.Honeycutt and T.Robinson (both important players) are out with injuries, Zubkov and Sokolov (less important) out too. The good point – their depth. A.Shved and A.Gill were rested in VTB league and that’s a sign that this game has is very important in Khimki schedule
My lean is Khimki +5, but I don’t see enough value to risk money here. With limited rotation Russians is at the same level as Maccabi and should get +4,5 line here. But we can ingnore that Khimki are 7-2 ATS on the road in last 9 games. But two times they won just by half point from closing line and it could be 5-4 as well.
Baskonia – Zalgiris
Fenerbahce – CSKA Moscow
In this Euroleague it’s not important where you finish at 2nd or 3rd place. The only thing Obradovic probably care is to avoid semifinal with heavy-weighters CSKA/Real Madrid. CSKA is regular season champion with 90% probability, so real motivation from both teams is close to friendly game. But CSKA coach and president can’t understand that only Final Four cares here and wants to win every game. That’s why I think russians will have more concentration here after home loss to Fenerbahce. But more important factor for me are trends, that tell us that Fener is very weak favorite this season and CSKA among the best road ATS beaters:
Fenerbahce 2-1-7 ATS in last 10 home games
CSKA 8-4 ATS on the road
As for the total it’s a little bit risky to go with Under due the high quality offense, which can score 160 pts. playing at 140 attack pace. But we will have value & trends on our side, so we must try Under here despite all risks.