Last Olympiacos took over top position of our Euroleague power rating due the CSKA loss to Fenerbahce. Baskonia finaly entered green zone with 5-3 ATS record and with 3 wins in a row.
Crvena Zvezda, Efes and Khimki continue to upset their supporters with bad results (especially at home) and Barcelona last week showed signs of life, when defeated struggling Valencia, which has entered danger zone after 3 bad games in a row.
What awaits us this week?
Zalgiris without ATS wins at home and host in-form Anadolu Efes. Who will cover 3-points spread?
Will Baskonia continue their winning streak in Belgrad as a 4-points favorite?
Valencia is highly motivated in Germany, but is that enough to take victory there as road underdog?
Milano will have a difficult test against Olympiacos defense. But they so far looks promising in home games.
FC Barcelona hosts Maccabi, which is doing really well this season and took 3/3 spreads on the road.
Khimki is weak home favorite, but they won against Real Madrid on the road. Will they be able to show their skills against Fenerbahce?
Real Madrid always had troubles playing in Greece. Panathinaikos returns home after 2 victories last week. Bookies see 50/50 game there? Do you agree with them?
Unicaja failed in both games last week and host CSKA, which is going to be very angry after home loss. Can Unicaja survive against Euroleague powerhouse?
Efes signed Z.Dragic this week (from Milan) and improved their bench. Slovenian forward available for this game, while Batuk and Balbay will miss trip to Kaunas due the NT duties. Zalgiris has injury troubles. A.Toupane and E.Ulanovas are doubtful and both are important rotation players.
Zalgiris which is 0-3 ATS at home doesn’t have so much quality not to feel absenses, but they are deep enough to survive with existing players. I was thinking about backing Zalgiris, but with 2 absence it’s better to skip or trust trend and go against Lithuanian team. Efes is on fire lately with 3 spreads in a row, but they are not that good to be fav in Kaunas. Anyway we should wait for Zalgiris lineup before doing bets here. If both players are out, Efes +3 is an option.
As for the total I like to the over here. Zalgiris has difficulties in defense, where they normaly gets 75+ points playing slow paced games. Efes is an uptempo team with weak defense, but very demanding offense. I am sure that pace should be uptempo. We should see many short possesions and defensive mistakes from both teams. Stats show good chances for 158+ points game here:
B.Dubljevic and R.Martinez didn’t travel to Germany with Valencia (Diot, Williams and Abalde knows absences). D.Hackett is back for this game for Brose Baskets. Looks like a good chance for Brose to get another win at home, but we should understimate Valencia. Without 2 players they still have 9-man rotation and enough experience to fight for points here.I expect very slow game here, because both team tends to play possession minded basketball. The problem is defensive pressure, that doesn’t work in last few games, but maybe the offensive quality of their opponents was the reason. Against each other we can expect more defensive attitude.
Home avg. scoring: 1.06-1.11 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.07-1.15 pts/attack
Expected pace: 134 attacks
Expected total range: 143-151 points
Due the weak defensive numbers we are not getting enough value for full stake, but this position is ok for system play, because both teams are on strong under trends. Brose 3-1 for Under at home, Valencia 4-1 on the road.
Goudelock, Young, Abass and Fontecchio will not play for Milan today, while Olympiacos coach will miss Agravanis and Spanoulis, who returned to the trainings but didn’t travel to Italy. Goudelock of course is a big miss, but without him Milan won against Barcelona and Brose. With him they lost to Zalgiris.. All other absences are not important for S.Piangiani and we shouldn’t forget about C.Jerrels, who is doing great job as point guard. Last season Olympiacos lost in Milan 83:99 as -6.5 favorite and today they again gets -4 handicap. But Milan is 3-1 ATS at home and as for me this game is much more balanced than bookies see. Greek team had troubles in Tel Aviv, played bad in Barcelona and won against Fenerbahce, which suits them by style. I see balanced game here with both teams able to win it and I prefer to with Milan +4 handicap here, that should exist here.
As for the total numbers talks for low scoring game with some chances for 150 points at the end. Only 1.07 pts/attack might kill Under here, but Olympiacos had 2/8 games with such percentage. We should try it with lowered stake, because trends are also talking for under.
Khimki without A.Gill (injury) and Zubkov (NT). T.Robinson is questionable, but I think will play. There are problems with PF-C position, where Monia is the only option at the moment. I think that Todorovic and Sokolov might get minutes too, if Robinson is out.
Fenerbahce is deep team and should win here and as for me deserves -9.5 handicap. Of course Khimki with their “A” game might win, but so far they have -17 against Olympiacos and -28 against Panathinaikos. Ok, they won against Madrid, but spanish powerhouse took that game too lightly.
Total is fairly set.
Unicaja – CSKA Moscow
Panathinaikos – Real Madrid
Let others know your opinion:
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