Not much changes at the top of our power rating. CSKA stayed there despite they failed to cover against Brose at home. Zalgiris moved to 3rd after another brilliant away performance in Athense, where they lost it OT but took their 8 ATS win. Other teams doesn’t looks so impressive as this trio, by doing up and downs whole season.
Efes is still at the bottom of rating with 3-7 ATS record on the road and very bad performance in overall.
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After the news that Doncic is probably out with ankle injury odds on CSKA dropped and I don’t see any value in them. Real is very good ATS team on the road (3-0 this season as underdogs) and they might deliver problems to CSKA on good day. But seems that good day will be in Belgrade.. Right now I think it’s better to skip bets on spanish powerhouse and consider CSKA at in-play with lower handicap (-4 and lower should be ok).
Zalgiris – Maccabi
Over 161 @ 1.90 WON
Zalgiris is very soft team defensively and can’t stop opponent offense either at home or on the road. Maccabi is fastest team of Euroleague and they always push pace in their games. Maccabi defensive skills are not good this season, especially on the road, where they owns 3rd worst defense (after Valencia and Efes).
In Tel Aviv teams showed high pace (150 attacks), but it might a little bit slower in Kaunas. However, Zalgiris at home tends to show great fighting spirit, ability to score extra points and doing this especially well in last 4-5 games. But this time they will have much more space in offense and more possessions. I would not be suprised if both teams will score 85+ points.
Home avg. scoring: 1,12-1,20 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1,08-1,21 pts/attack
Expected pace: 147 attacks
Expected total range: 162-177 points
Zalgiris 6-3 on Over at home
Maccabi 5-0 on Over in last 5 road games (6-3 overall)
Barcelona – Milan
Anadolu Efes – Valencia
Olympiacos – Fenerbahce
Brose – Panathinaikos
Baskonia – Crvena Zvezda
Khimki – Unicaja
Unicaja must win to continue their playoff run. If they lose, they are almost out of real chances to reach Top-8. But they had traveled to Moscow without two Nemanja Nedovic and Jeff Brooks, both injured. Nedovic is their scoring leader and without him Unicaja lost all their games in Euroleague.
Khimki is doing well in last EL rounds. With a win they will kick-off one more competitor from playoff race and actually will have to fight with Baskonia and Maccabi. Everyone is healthy in Khimki (except long-term injured Robinson).
Khimki is weak favorite (3-7 ATS at home), but in recent weeks they are showing ATS form improvement and I prefer to avoid betting against them right now. Because they will look for 10 points margin to get h2h advantage over Unicaja. Also without Nedovic I can’t see much chances for Unicaja, despite they are playing as a team and can compensate leader loss with team effort.
Home avg. scoring: 1.03-1.10 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.16 pts/attack
Expected pace: 146 attacks
Expected total range: 154-165 points
Total line is fair. But keep in mind, that in Malaga game pace was only 130 attacks. In that game teams showed very high shooting percentage and often it means that teams doesn’t matchup defensively.
Let others know your opinion:
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