Zalgiris won 2nd game in a row in Malaga and continued their huge ATS run. No surprise, that together with Olympiacos and CSKA they are in Top-3 of our rating. But as they good enough to deliver money as favs? On Thursday they will host Baskonia, who surprised the world by winning against Real 105-75 and pushed them to 6th positions.
Crvena Zvezda and Barcelona were sent to the bottom list after losing to CSKA and Brose. And Baskonia with Efes showing signs of life.
Power rating after 7 weeks
CSKA – Fenerbahce
Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda
Milano – Brose Basket
Barcelona – Valencia
under 157.5 @ 1.92 5/10
It is impossible to understand how such team as Barcelona can waste 26 points lead on the road. But happened. And there are enough reasons. The most important one – total absence of point guard, who can control the game. Heurtel can’t manage team. Team playing well only when he is playing his A game. When he is in bad shape, he can’t change his mind and start creating chances for teammates. He lose control over the game and that things are done. Because Phil Pressey can’t play european basketball and Pau Ribas is shooting guard as well as Navarro, who is playing his last season (I hope so).
Valencia is in similar situation. Vives and Van Rossom are below EL standarts as point guards, but they can help each other and let others direct the offensive flow of the team. Doornerkamp, Green, Sastre, San Emeterio, Dubljevic – all of them can make an assist. Valencia has in-built system and can survive with it in any game, but last few games they are experience difficulties with concentration. Maybe demanding schedule is the reason.
Both teams needs victory and I hope that defensively both will do their best to stop losing streak and get important points. Game should be average paced and there enough room to finish under 157 points.
Home avg. scoring: 0.94-1.10 pts/attack
Away avg. scoring: 1.06-1.16 pts/attack
Expected pace: 143 attacks
Expected total range: 143-161 points
Both will look to bounce back after poor Tuesday perfomance. Maccabi has covered the spread both times on the road against bottom teams (88:71 against Brose and 84:87 against Zvezda) and now visits Khimki, which has 4-0 home record, but failed to cover the spread (0-4 ATS home). Khimki right now is perfect example of weak home favorite and I see good chances for both streaks to continue.
Many bettors and experts will like Khimki spread. But I see it as bookie trap, because they want to see public money on home side. Therefore, I prefer to go with system bet against weak favorite again, because Maccabi has healthy rotation and well-implemented playing system (can’t say this about Russian team).
Zalgiris – Baskonia
Anadolu Efes – Panathinaikos
Real Madrid – Unicaja
Nedovic is low for Unicaja, despite he traveled with a team. And Real Madrid will miss A.Randolph, who was injured against Baskonia. However, 220cm giant Tavares played first minutes for Real on Tuesday.
At this point of the season Real fits weak favorite system (1-1-2 ATS at home), but due injuries and bad form we see correction from bookies tonight. We are getting just -8 spread instead of healthy -10 line. I mean -10 is normal line for the hosts without Randolph against Unicaja without Nedovic. Serbian PG is more important and hard to compensate. And Real after series of losses might respond with big game from its bench players. But if line would be -11 or higher, than Unicaja spread would qualify as a system pick. So the best and logical choice here – stay away or take Real Madrid. I prefer to skip.
Total line is set correctly. My system see this game between 160 and 174 points.
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