Euroleague Game Previews. Week 8. Thursday

Maccabi against MilanFree previews and one pick for games in Belgrade, Vittoria and Istanbul. Read, comment and feel devotion! 

Crvena Zvezda – Milan

  • Home avg. pace: 138 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 0.95 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 152 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.14 pts/attack

Crvena Zvezda won in Bamberg on Tuesday, but I think it’s to pay the price for it. They had very difficult schedule in last 2 weeks and fatique will be a huge factor today. Milan was on home stay since game with Efes and had perfect opportunity to prepare for this double-Euroleague week. Milan has much better roster with Raduljica and Macvan under boards against Kuzmic, who was Raduljica sub last season in Panathinaikos. Gentile, Dragic, Sanders, Simon and Hickman seems like too much for this young Crvena Zvezda.

Milan is 3-0 ATS in last 3 rounds and I agree with their favorite status in Belgrade tonight. Not so much value here, but situational factors + class difference is on away side here.

Total range is too open to decide with a bet. Numbers say that we can expect 146-172 points game, so 159 looks logical line here.

Prediction: Crvena Zvezda 78 – 85 Milan

Pick: Milan (-1) @ 2,00 Pinnacle

Baskonia – Brose Baskets

  • Home avg. pace: 149 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.10 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 139 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.023 pts/attack

Bamberg is a dangerous team, which can provide a sensation. They are 2-5 in the standings, but all 7 games were decided with less than 4 points margin (after 40 minutes). After home loss to Crvena Zvezda Brose should be even more motivated to get a result in Vittoria. Brose gets less respect in away games and they 3-0 ATS due that reason. Baskonia is 1-2 ATS at home (with only ATS win over struggling Fenerbahce) and I don’t think that they deserve to be almost 7 points favs.

I expect Brose scoring 71-80 points (with more chances for 75-80), but Brose defense should be able to keep Baskonia under 82 points. Brose +6,5 was good for small, but when line dropped to -5 value has gone.

Under 159,5 could be a good bet, but I would like to see 163 line for pre-match bet. So let’s wait for higher line at in-play.

Prediction: Baskonia 79 – 76 Brose Baskets

Fenerbahce – Efes

  • Home avg. pace: 138 attacks
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,055 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 152 attacks
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.126 pts/attack

Fenerbahce after 3 losses in a row will be especially motivated in this derby, but odds on them doesn’t represent value, especially looking to their 3-4 ATS record and their level of basketball in last game. Antic is absolutely out of form, Vesely is far from his best conditions and Obradovic struggle to find solution.

Efes has 2-1-4 ATS record and it indicates, how overestimated this team is. Ulker defense should reappear tonight with more solid performance than it was against Unics (73:81), Baskonia (52:86) and Maccabi (77:87), if they want to stop their losing streak. It’s better to skip this match.

Prediction: Fenerbahce 81 – 76 Efes Pilsen

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