Zalgiris – Olympiacos

spanoulisOlympiacos travels to Kaunas after 2 victories in a row, but without D.Hacket and Agravanis. Zalgiris is great form too, but will they be able to repeat their offensive level against best defensive team in Euroleague?

Olympiacos comes without D.Hackett (injured for long time) and Printezis is questionable (seems nothing serious). Olympiacos starting to play much better defense recently and seems to be well motivated tonight. Bookmakers already included their opinion into handicap. In old times we would get pk line, but they set greeks as favorite despite their injuries. And they are absolutely right.

Zalgiris offense should met huge problems tonight after having easy life against teams, which doesn’t care about defense a lot. Olympiacos is different team. When they are motivated and concentrated their defense might kill anyone in Europe. I expect it to be shown today in Kaunas. Game pace should be slow one, because both tends to slow down it. This is first time for Jasikevicius, when they will meet agressive defense and I expect them to collapse.

Zalgiris scores just 0.94 pts/possession against bad defensive team at home, but this time they will have just around 80 possessions. Olympiacos limited Darussafaka to 0.87 pts/poss, Unics to 0.71 pts/poss. and I expect them to continue like this this evening. Zalgiris should score 0.86-0.95 pts/poss. and from 80 possessions this gives us 69-76 points range.

  • Home avg. pace: 144 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,104 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.11-1.145 pts/attack

Prediction: Zalgiris 74 – 81 Olympiacos

Pick: Zalgiris under 77.5 @ 1.90 

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This article has 3 Comments

  1. 40-42 at half time…. Zalgiris exceded everyone’s expectations in scoring points. 🙁
    I don’t think we have much hope in ending under 77.5 points for Zalgiris, unfortunatelly. 🙁

      1. Yes!!! Pick won, eventually!!! Thank you, Alleks!!!
        Usually, I see that Zalgiris tend to score more points in the second half then in the first half… and I thought there aren’t many chances for Zalgiris to end the match scoring less then 77.5 points, but as always, your prediction was right. I’m so glad, because I had put some money on an odd 2.135 ticket [Zalgiris –> under 77,5 (odd: 1.75) + Heracles – Sparta Rotterdam –> over 1,5 goals (odd 1.22)]. Thank you, 💖 Alleks 💖, for your predictions!!! You trully are a professional sport analyser!!!

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