Spain – Serbia
Public believes in Spain and bet on Spain to cover the spread easily. Honestly speaking I also hold them as WC favorite but there is only one team on this planet who can beat them at this moment. And it is young and ambitious Serbia… Some of you will call me crazy because Spanish roster is full of stars and experience and I agree with you. But sometimes I listen my intuition and now I am forced to go against Spain because of value.
Serbia is young but really very-very good team. They have 10 man rotation. They are better on PG, FW and C positions because for me Velickovic, Macvan, Savanovic are better than Reyes with neck problems and old Mumbru & Garbajosa. On C position Krstic is much much better than bad copy of P.Gasol (by the way M.Gasol had tonsilitis this week and has not trained with a team), and M.Teodosic is the same calibre player as R.Rubio but D.Ivkovic has also A.Rasic and S.Markovic while Scariolo has only R.Lopez as back up playmaker.
Statistically there is also no reason to set Spain as 6.5 points favorite. Serbia has better offense (87 against 84) and better defense (69.5 against 72) and also Serbia is listed in many statistical categories as Top5 team. Finally, this serbian guys won against Spain in Poland when P.Gasol was playing. Ok they lost in the final but they had only one day to prepare for that game. Now they had 3 days and I think that D.Ivkovic has much better plan for this match.
This game might a be break moment in basketball for next 5-6 years. If Serbia wins they will become a leading force in Europe for long and we will never see them as 6.5 dogs against any european team. I see close match here with winner deciding in the end and I think that Serbia worth a shot here.
Pick: Serbia +7 @ 1.87 Pinnacle 4/10
Turkey – Slovenia
I expect low pace basketball here with long possessions and a lot of defensive work from both sides. In last games both teams overperformed offensively by shooting with 70% shooting from 2 pts zone or 16/33 3-pointers for Slovenia against Australia. It will be hard to show such percentage again because a lot is on the stake especially for Turkey.
I expect 135-148 points game here so my line is 141.5 points what is 6 points under the line bookies set. If nobody will shoot 15/28 3-pointers this evening I hardly see this game going over 144 points. I expect Turkey to score 68-78 points and Slovenia 65-72 so will bet on under with medium-low stakes.
Total is ok for a bet till 146.5.
Pick: Under 147.5 @ 1.98 3/10 Betfair