FIBA WC-2010. Day 11 picks

david_blattUSA – Russia

Everybody on this planet is impressed by USA 60+ points win over Angola and cruise-control wins over Tunisia and Iran. But this is a playoff and this is a strange russian souls. Do you remember how these guys won against Spain in Eurobasket 2007? They will die on the court to make history and playing without pressure russian boys can do miracles.

I expect D.Blatt to prepare his team really well for this game. Tactically russian players are much more clever and disciplined than those Roses, Durants, Westbrooks and so on. Russia will try to involve US players to play european basketball and this is the basketball where they can explode and USA to lose a head. Russia have big inside presence on C positions and enough muscles and weight not to avoid americans to run the floor as they did against Angola. It would be interesting to see how american boys will play offensively against smart defensive schemes of D.Blatt… I agree that USA has much more talent but it’s time to lay them. They will not win this World Championship. Believe it or not.

Also I expect this game to be a slow paced. Russia offensively always control the ball for 18-22 secs and forcing opponents to search for open zones offensively too for quite long time because defensively Russia looks very good since D.Blatt came to the head coach position in 2005.

Russia to score 65-76 and USA 79-90 is my call here. My line is 84.5-70.5 and it is good for under and Russian HC. It will be hard for US to cover 25-points spread in 64-90 points range.

Pick: Russia +24 @ 2.00 4/10 Pinnacle
Pick: Under 167.5 @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Pick: Russia to win @ 40 0.5/10 betfair

luis_scolaArgentina – Lithuania

End of the road for Lithuania. Lithuania have no options against Scola defensively also don’t forget about Delfino and Prigioni. So far Lithuania struggled in first halves against teams like Canada, China, France, Spain, New Zealand but managed to comeback and win all matches. But now they will play against very good and experienced team from Argentina. And unfortunately for me I can’t see other winner than Argentina. Unfortunately line already has moved to -5 where I don’t see value for Argentina so outcome is nobet for me before the game. But I will wait for higher odds on Argentina ML at in-play.

I like over 157.5 in this game but line moved almost everywhere and now it has only small value for me.

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