Third WC day has been splited into 2 calendar days to provide some rest for the teams so we have only six matches today and tomorrow. Yesterday we have a really great day so today we have to be careful and continue without any euphoria.
Slovenia – Croatia
Slovenia has higher FIBA ranking & recent results so they are favorite in this game according to bookies line. But I rate Croatia as a better team right now with more quality than Slovenia. Slovenian key players Lakovic, Becirovic are not in best form at this moment, Dragic is not showing spectacular basketball to and under the boards croats are simply deeper and better.
I expect a tough match with many lead changes but for me Croatia is worth an average stake because I rate them a little bit better team these days.
Pick: Croatia +2.5 @ 1.95 4/10 Pinnacle
Brazil – USA
I rate Brazil offensive potential as on of the best in this group (after US of course) and if Slovenia & Croatia scored 70+ points to US defense brazilians should be able to do it too. Barbosa, Garcia, Machado, Splitter are experienced and athletic enough to score against physical US defense. On defensive end Brazil was never good against high pace teams and that’s why I see USA scoring around 100 points again. I expect something around 102-78 for US here so small shot on over here.
Pick: Over 175.5 @ 1.95 2/10 Pinnacle
Australia – Germany
Australia has enough weapons to win this game. German team had 2 very difficult but very good games but now it is time to lay them because they are not the team which can score with such high percentage everyday. Australia is not an easy opponent for germans and after yesterday win over serbian team german may relax a bit or have bad shooting day.
This pick is more about going against Germany than about Australia strength but anyway I think that normal line should be around 1.60 for Australia so another low-stakes bet.
Pick: Australia @ 1.80 2/10 Betfair