FIBA WC-2010. Day 8 picks

westbrookUSA – Angola

I expect 185-190 possesions game and considering that USA doing on average 1.04 pts/possession and allow 0.72/possesion we can expect 65-69 points from Angola and 98-105 from USA. Angola is not a good team on defensive end and they much faster (and more powerful offensively) than Iran and Tunis which involved USA into slow-paced boring basketball at the end of group stage.

Bad news for Angola is that their leading scorer Cipriano is doubtful for this game but they still have enough experienced players who can score 65-75 points to US defense. But unfortunately I can’t see them defending under 95 points against americans. I see 162+ points game under different scenarios: 92:73, 95:76, 99:65, 102:66 and so on.

Pick: Over 161.5 @ 1.95 4/10 Pinnacle

ponkrashovRussia – New Zeland

For me Russia is clear favorite here but I don’t trust them. Russians are good as underdogs but you never know how they are going to perform as favorite. They often have problems in offense but they are very good defensively. Today I expect Russia to play hard defense and control pace not allowing kiwies to run the court.

NZ team offensive performance will be limited today because D.Blatt is an expert of destroying opponents offense. Teams played 2 times in preparations:

21.08.10    Russia – New Zealand    65:67 (19:10, 17:19, 14:15, 15:23)
15.08.10    Russia – New Zealand    89:76 (23:24, 25:22, 19:16, 22:14)

Both times Russia was in full control and had a 15-points lead but they allowed a run in 4th quarter of game 2 and lost it in the end. But as you can see from the results in 5 of 8 played quarters Russia closed NZ offensive game under 19 points per quarter.

I think that opening line -5.5 on Russia was good enough for small bet on Russia to coverbut -8 is fair line.  I expect low pace defensive minded game here where NZ will struggle to score 70 points and Russia has everything to score more than 74 points.

Expected score: Russia 75 – 66 New Zealand

For me New Zealand under 71.5 is worth a small-medium pick here but only few bookies allow this kind of bets.

Pick: New Zealand Under 70.5 @ 1.90 3/10 Unibet

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