Slovenia – Russia
Russian without A.Kaun in this match and without him they might have huge defensive problems if Mozgov will get in foul trouble as he likes. Slovenia has much more weapons offensively, better player and longer bench. They have to dominate in this game and I would not be suprised with double digits win of Slovenia. But for 5-6 place match line has too low value for official bet.
USA – Lithuania
First semifinal which is very awaited in Lithuania because everyone here expect to see another surprise from these guys. I never was in position that US is a best team here and I absolutely sure that they are not unbeatable. If greens wants to go to the final first thing they should do is to cut their turnovers, second shoot 3-pointers with high percentage and third play smart defense. Honestly speaking looking into Lithunian team progress at this tournament there is a chance that they getting their best form these days and if this is true that can help them today to make a dream.
Statistically line is set quite well and I don’t see any value in picking either total or handicap, but I would be forced I would take Lithuania +13.5. But this is not an official pick. Official one is Lithuania to win with 1/10 because as I said earlier I am going to lay US until the end of tournament.
Pick: Lithuania @ 8.0 1/10 Betfair
Turkey – Serbia
It would be strange to see Turkey as dogs in the line but also I don’t think that -6.5 handicap is a fair one here. Turkoglu and his warriors were ultra-successful in their last 2 games against France by hitting almost every shot from the distance. Unfortunatelly statistically it is hard to expect another 75% FG percentage from all distances against defensively very solid looking Serbia. Serbia is more balanced team with deeper bench, 10-players rotation and Duda always can change tactics if someone from leaders are off the game. But can you can me what Tanjevic will do if Turkoglu or Ilyasova will have a bad day? Or those crazy 3-pointers would not fall this evening? He can’t change anything in his team.. he needs megaform from his leaders to win games and I think that D.Ivkovic has good plan for this game how to stop turkish offense.
According to interviews Serbia’s game plan is not to allow Turkey to make another huge 1st half lead. If they stay close till the of 3rd quarter pressure will play against Turkish team and as we all know Turkish teams never was good in delivering results under the pressure.
Serbia won 2 games against Turkey in Turkey in the beginning of August. They know this team, they know how to win and for me they are better team. If this game would be played on neutral ground I would set Serbia as 3.5 favorite. Today they are playing away-type of game but Turkish home court is not worth 10 points in my line.
My line here is -3/152.5 and I see value in both positions. First Serbia +7 at Pinnacle, and second under 158 points. Low pace (Turkey avg. pace is only 157 possessions per game) is expected here and defense must roll in finally at this tournament.