Monday Night NBA 02/1213

Today we got 5 games, including the very interesting game between Portland and Indiana.

Washington Wizards – Orlando Magic

Wizards come to this game with 8 – 9 record and have really great chance to get to 500% record, by winning tonight’s match.
With all the due respects to the Magic, that been playing really well an above expectations (mostly due to Afflalo) – their goal is to lose as much as possible and to give their young players as much experience as possible.
Wizards on the other hand, clearly aiming playoff and have one of the Top 6 rosters in the East in my opinion.
It’s true that they without Beal and Harrington, but Orlando play without Nelson as well and overall, Wizards are better team, that plays at home and wants to win more.
Having said all that, 6 points is a lot to lay here. Out of their 8 wins, only one was by double digits, so while Wizards manage to get the wins, they usually don’t trash their opponents, so there is always a chance of a back door cover or closer game than one might like.
Wizards should win and have a good chance to do it above the spread, but if I had to choose, I would take their decent ML odds and use Wizards for a parlay.

Chicago Bulls – New Orleans Pelicans

Both teams play without their franchise player. The difference is that while Bulls appear to begin to adjust to the loss of Rose, Pelicans lost Davis only last night, so while it’s not as serious injury, Pelicans still need to make some adjustments.
Davis was having amazing year and last night, Anderson filled his role on offense with 31 points (7 from 11 behind the arc).
I doubt that he will manage to do the same against Bulls defense. Bulls come back home, where they got 5 – 0 record and they will want to maintain their free of losses home record.
Chicago got more rest before the game and got an extra day’s rest after the game, so I expect full effort from them here.
But, one huge warning sign is the fact that the Bulls came back home after 6 games road trip and the players are tired and glad to be back home.
In similar spots, teams usually covered less than 1/3 of the times and that’s something to worry about.
I think that Bulls have good chance of covering the line, but I feel much better obviously with the ML odds here.

SA Spurs – Atlanta Hawks

Spurs off a home loss on a 9 – 0 run both SU and ATS, covering the spread on average by no less than 9 points, so most games weren’t close calls or something.
The fact that this home loss came against bitter Texas rival, Houston, makes them even more angrier I believe.
Hawks are very mediocre road team and today there is a chance they will be both without Teague and Korver.
12 points are a lot of points to lay, but in this case, I would consider.

Utah Jazz – Houston Rockets

Both teams come to this game after an upset win, both on the road as heavy underdogs.
Rockets won the Texan derby against the Spurs, while Utah got their revenge, by beating Phoenix in Arizona, to avenge the home loss against them 24 hours earlier.
Usually I would bet on the Rockets in this spot, but I don’t like the spot they are in.
They come as heavy favorites, after big win and with several injuries and question marks. Lin is out, Beverly in awful form, Parsons and Garcia both questionable for today, so their first two options for both 1 and 3 positions don’t look too good.
If Harden will be forced to play PG and Casspi to play SF, they will both play in positions they know well, but ones that they haven’t play this season too much in.
In all the mess, to lay so many point just seems a bit too much for me here.
Skipping this one.

Portland – Indiana Pacers

Both teams will fly to this game from LA, after having played there last night. Both teams won the LA teams, but Indiana has 6 hours advantage over the Blazers, since their game was earlier and this gives them slight advantage as far as rest angle goes.
But it’s more than that. Portland was forced to fly back and forth for 9 games straight and only now, they finally will play more then one home in a row.
This is very difficult schedule and I expect Portland to run out of gas at some point tonight, against merciless Pacers defense.
Portland has mediocre bench and most of their strength comes from their starters, so B2B spots rarely do them good.
This is a game between two hottest teams in their conferences, but Indiana on another level than the rest of the league at the moment.
Deep, talented, can play on both ends of the floor and hungry to prove their worth.
It’s very hard to bet against Portland at home, but Indiana can be a solid bet tonight.

Overall, I think that we got few decent bets tonight, but nothing too easy.
I would look at Bulls and Wizards as ML options and on Spurs and Pacers as ATS options.

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Best of luck everybody!!!

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