Today we got 4 games and I wanted to give you my thoughts on them.
Orlando Magic – Milwaukee Bucks
In the last 9 games that the teams met, the home team won in all 9 of them.
But, while Milwaukee seems to be on the right path, Magic on the other hand, appear to have lost their way recently.
January was their worst month of the season so far, making it 2 – 11 SU.
Orlando were especially terrible ATS at home this season and January was their worst, covering only 4 out of their 14 home games played as an Underdog (and 6 out of 19 home overall) and in January they did even worse, covering only one line at home, out of 6 games.
Bucks on the other hand, since team’s meeting didn’t look back. 3 – 0 ATS and 2 – 1 SU.
On top of that, they played very well and could have just as easily went 3 – 0, by winning in San Antonio.
I don’t like to go against such clear H2H trend as 9 games in a row won by a home team, but in this game, it’s Bucks or nothing.
Bucks can match up Orlando’s defense and outplay them on offense.
Orlando tries to play hard, but fail too often, while Bucks, have a bit more veteran leaders and manage to find ways to win.
Bucks or nothing for me here.
Memphis – Denver
Bookies still didn’t release the line, due to question marks around Conley’s and Allen’s participation in the game tonight.
Still, Memphis should be 8 – 10 points favorites with them and at least 7 without them.
Denver are 6 – 1 in the last two seasons, playing on the road, after ATS cover on the road the game before.
Denver are an enigma, but as a rule of a thumb, just like the Knicks – they are either very very bad or almost good.
They are very streaky and usually can go on good and bad runs – mostly because this is a team that has great depth, one of the deepest teams in the league, but no real star, bad coaching and simple truth, nothing to play for, since they are 7 games behind Suns and the 8th seed in the Western Conference.
So when they feel the mood suits them, they play to their potential and tend to do that in stretches. When they aren’t in the mood, they can lose to just about anyone.
Memphis and Bulls are the two teams I would happily take as dogs to win SU, but wouldn’t want to lay any points beyond one possession.
Memphis covered only 7 out of 23 games they played as favorites by 7+ points at home, despite winning 19 of them.
I think the scenario of Memphis winning but not covering can repeat itself, but with the Nuggets, you always need to be careful, because the best team at beating the Nuggets, are the Nuggets themselves.
On another point, both teams have several trends that support the Under in this spot, so would consider it as well, especially if Allen is out, since books can easily overreact to his absence.
Nuggets seems to be the best way to go here, but would give Under some thoughts as well.
Indiana Pacers – NY Knicks
If it was any other team, but the proud Pacers, I would have said they are tanking. 2 – 8 both SU and ATS the last 10 games they played, managing to lose to Sixers on the road and Minnesota at home in the process.
As for the Knicks, as I mentioned previously, this is the best example to a streaky team.
6 – 2 SU the last three seasons, coming off 4 games ATS winning streak, as they are before tonight’s game and 4 – 1 ATS and SU, playing as a road dog, coming off 4 games ATS winning streak.
No one knows if Melo plays and what Pacers and Knicks will appear, but I do know few things and that’s that you don’t bet against Knicks, when they are on a winning streak and that Knicks are in the best run of their season so far.
If you add to that, the poor performance that Pacers been showing recently and Knicks would be something worth considering.
Having said that, it’s the Knicks, so you have to be ready to part with the money, each time you place a bet on them.
Knicks or nothing for me here.
LA Lakers – Chicago Bulls
Assuming the line would be 7+ points, I wouldn’t come near this game.
Bulls off a huge emotional win in Oakland, winning in OT, after a turnover by the Warriors in the final seconds of regulation.
Lakers without Kobe get big lines, but play really hard.
How Bulls will respond, how will the Lakers play, it’s anyone’s guess.
Gun to the head, Bulls win and cover, but why go near it?
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Best of luck everybody!!!