NBA pick for Friday – December 11th

Toronto – Milwaukee

Toronto will play today without Valancuinas and Carroll and those are two very important starters for the team. I know that in the NBA, anything could happen and that Toronto won the Spurs with the same line up, but that really doesn’t tell me much. Toronto also won Cleveland, but lost to Phoenix and Denver at home. This is the NBA… More to the point though…

Bucks are improving lately without a doubt. It’s not the same team that lost to the Raptors by 19 points earlier this season. I know that Bucks have a lot of problems and I like the fact that Kidd doesn’t hide and admits them and tries to fix them. MCW struggles on offense, but without him, the team struggles on defense and for a team that has already suspicious spacing (to the say the least), any, even semi threat from far, it’s really a hard choice. To chose to improve very poor offense and sacrifice the defense or try to keep the rotation as is and the good defense and try to improve the offense via new plays and offensive schemes.
You got Parker and Monroe, both don’t know how to play defense. They are very offensive players on offense, but only from mid range and in the paint – can’t solve the spacing problem. But if you remove them from the equation, among other problems, you will get just awful offense that even best defense will have problems to defend. Kidd said it honestly – teams learned how to play against their defense that was one of the best last season. He also said that he won’t change the defense. He just expects his players to elevate the level of execution on defense.
Last season, Toronto blew Bucks out of the building in the first game in Canada, winning by 42 points. That didn’t stop the Bucks from winning SU in Canada the next time they visited there, the same season, 75 – 82.
Why I like the Bucks here? As I said, two crucial starters are out for the Raptors. Carroll is one of the best 3&D players in the league. DeRozan is 6″7 (201 cm) shooting guard. He is killing them small shooting guards that the league is full of, by taking them to the letters. He also developed decent mid range jumper. But, his Achilles heel is his three point shooting. 16.7% at home from behind the arc. Today he plays probably the tallest back court duo in the league and it doesn’t even matter who will start. Bucks back court full of tall defenders with big arm span. Good luck scoring of post up on them… Basically, Toronto will score as much as Bucks will allow to Lowry to score and to create. In case it wasn’t obvious, Greek Freak and MCW are good defenders and will probably split most of the minutes in the PG position.
I don’t know what I like more here, Bucks ATS or Raptors TT Under bet.
So for me, it’s a very easy decision.
Bucks +7.5, 1.91 odds – 4 units play – Pinnacle
Raptors Under 101 points, 1.93 odds – 4 units play – Pinnacle

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