NBA pick for Monday – November 16th

Today we got Eastern showdown, between two teams that been known for their defense, but lately been trying to up the pace a bit and focus on offense actually.

 

 

 

 

Chicago Bulls – Indiana Pacers

It’s very hard to find a team, as horrible at covering (or even winning) as big favorite at home as the Bulls are. They simply horrible at it and cover no more than 37.5% of the time.
Pacers have Stuckey and Hill, both point guards, questionable for tonight and Turner, actually really great rookie, missing this game due to injury.
But, as long as their will be 5 Pacers players, they got a good chance at covering. To be more serious for a moment, George is on fire at the moment, Hill, whose questionable presence at the game, caused the line to move from -4.5 to -6 points, on the other hand, been struggling to adjust to Pacers new pace and offense. Ellis is a SG, but one that needs to have the ball in his hand to create. He is a P&R expert and you can’t do P&R, without having the ball.
Last season, Pacers were big dogs against Bulls twice (9 points and 4.5 points) and covered both. The only game Bulls covered, was actually when they were one point favorites against the Pacers.
Bulls are coming off two straight wins, feeling good about themselves and Bulls as big favorites, at home, off a win, is even worse spot for the Bulls backers, as Bulls fall to 33% only covering.
I’m not saying I will be shocked to see Bulls win and cover, this a league where everything could happen and we saw things much more amazing than that.
But bottom line, fading Bulls as big home favorites (by 5 points or more) at the right spots, will prove to be profitable by the end of the season.
This season so far, they are 0 – 3 ATS in such spots, so obvious that a cover is lurking near by, but I will take my chances here.

Pacers +6, 1.94 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle

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Best of luck everybody!!!

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