NBA pick for Saturday – November 28th

Tonight we got rematch of last season’s first round series and I believe in similar result again tonight.

Washington Wizards – Toronto Raptors

Wizards lost to Charlotte on Wednesday, after Hornets finishing the game with 25 – 2 run. They also were blown away on Friday, but it’s a good thing, since that allowed the whole roster, except Beal, not to play more than 30 minutes (Beal played 33 minutes).
Teams met 7 times last season. Three games in regular season and four times in the playoffs. Toronto swept regular season series, but Wizards swept the series that actually matters – first round of the NBA Playoffs. 4 – 0 brutal and swift caused the Raptors to end their season after first round already, for second straight season, despite having HCA both times.
What we must remember about last season is that Toronto won two of the games in regular season, when Wizards were without Beal, Wizards second best player. Also, that Lu Will, was the best player of the Raptors against the Wizards and he is now on Lakers bench, thinking how did that happen…
Wizards after two bad losses, coming back home and should be ready as hell to spit fire.
As for the Raptors, they are still without Valancuinas (Nene is probably out for the Wizards), but that doesn’t matter that much. He was terrible last season against the Wizards and didn’t get that many minutes, since Raps preferred to play small ball most of the time.
Raptors off three straight wins, including to road wins in LA and one heroic win against Cleveland, where they turned fourth quarter trailing to a win.
We got one of my favorite spots in the league. Two teams that are in similar level, but one shown short term good results and other short term bad results.
Wizards aren’t Rockets that been terrible all season and Raps aren’t Cleveland that been impressive most season. Raps made three games winning streak, while Wizards on three games skid. In a long term that means nothing. I can only remind that before those streaks, Toronto were the ones that lost three in a row and Wizards won three in a row – so those small streaks happen both ways very easily.
Wizards fell below 50% and really need this win to get back on track. Raptors on 5 games winning streak ATS. This is their biggest winning streak the last season and some. They won already 5 straight wins ATS this season, but than got stopped, losing in Orlando, despite being 6 points favorites (lost SU).
I rate Wizards as 1.5 points favorites on neutral floor. In D.C., I expect at least 5.5 – 6 points line and even if we add B2B factor and revenge for playoff loss factor, we get not more than 4 points against the Wizards, not 2.5 points in their favor.
I like Wizards tonight to come together and after few bad losses to win this one, while I feel that it’s time to fade the Raptors and even if they manage to win this one, I will continue to search for good spots to fade them.
Wizards to win, 2.35 odds – 8 units play – 5Dimes.

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