Washington – Dallas
Dallas won against the Wizards in all of their last 10 match ups, covering in all of the last 5 meetings as well.
Wizards have depth problem under the rims, after playing against the Suns without all four of their bigs, since Gortat left the team to Poland for few days, to be with his mother (who is sick) and Nene, Gooden and Humphries all injured. Gortat still out for tonight, while other bigs are questionable. Hollins who was signed few days ago, started as their only big against the Suns, but most of the game, Wizards played really smallball with Porter as Center (!). Wizards had several meltdowns recently in the fourth quarter, including big meltdowns in Charlotte and against Toronto, but actually enjoyed one, since this time, it was Phoenix that had it and not them. Wizards won fourth quarter by 10 points and limited the Suns to only one field goal, in the final 7 minutes of the game (other points Suns made came from the free throw line). Still, Wizards are 2 – 5 SU and 3 – 4 ATS the last 7 games.
Dallas aren’t better SU, with 2 – 5 as well in their last 7 games, but 4 – 3 ATS (though got few very lucky ones).
Dallas bad record is mostly due to poor road trip, where they lost all three games, but they had to play 3 games in four days against Oklahoma, Memphis and SA Spurs, so those losses are understandable.
For tonight’s game, on top of Wizards problems under the boards, I expect them to struggle in few other areas as well.
Wall should excel against poor (and slow) defenders like D-Will and Felton (Barea is fast, but small and also not too good on offense), but Beal will be covered by Matthews, one of the best defenders in the league and Beal struggles with his offense already and we can see that the injured shoulder still bothers him. While Wall is amazing, Beal is very important player for the team and he is usually the difference between losing and winning.
Second problem is Dirk, since there is not one player on Wizards roster that can guard him and Carlisle proved time after time, that he can take advantage on that and outcoached Wittman on every chance he had (not that it’s too difficult).
If Wizards bigs won’t recover by tonight, we can add Powell to the list, since he is mobile enough to guard smaller players, he can do damage in the paint and on the boards.
All in all, any streak ends at some moment, but all in all, I see no reason why Dallas won’t win their 11th straight win against the Wizards.
Dallas -2, 1.91 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle
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