NBA pick for Thursday – December 10th

Chicago Bulls – LA Clippers

Looking at the way Clippers played on the road and the way Bulls played at home as small favorites or dogs, so far this season, immediately lead me to believe that Bulls got value here, as long as they are favorites by no more than 2 points or underdogs. I decided yesterday already, that if Bulls lose in Boston and LAC win in Milwaukee, this is an autobet and that was the case.

One look at box scores yesterday, says to me that I was wrong, thinking that Boston’s game is the one that is more important to the Bulls. No, today is. Bulls leaders played less minutes in a very close game against Boston, than Clippers leaders in a game against the Bucks. That by itself leads me to want to check the Bulls here.
On top of that, looking at the Bulls home games, we see a team that is prior to the two home losses in a row recently, had 7 – 1 record at home, winning good teams like Cleveland, Indiana, SA Spurs and Oklahoma – or equal or better than the Clippers and the only loss, was as a big favorite to the Wolves, in OT, but lets remember, Wolves have yet to lose a line on the road this season. The losses to Minny, Phoenix and Charlotte, prove what I been telling all along – don’t trust Bulls as big favorites. Trust them as dogs or small favorites. Still, despite the losses, they were in the game till the end (OT loss to Minny, buzzer beater loss to the Suns and 5 points loss in an equal match to the red hot Hornets). Clippers have yet to win any team on the road, above 21st place in the league (Minny) and out of their 4 road losses, three were by double digits, against poor teams like Portland and mediocre teams like Dallas and Phoenix. The only good game they played on the road and lost, was the loss to the Warriors by 4 points.
I rate Bulls and Clippers on the same level, so my line here is about 3.5 – 4 points in Bulls favor, since motivation should be strongly on Bulls side, but form is strongly on Clippers side.
Instead we get a PK here and I do rate Bulls chance much higher, around 60% for a home win.
You can wait a bit longer and catch Bulls to win for 2.00+ odds, but I will take the odds offered now.
I thought about taking Bulls -2 for 2.17 odds to be honest, but luck is not on my side this season, so will try to get few easy wins for now.
Bulls -1, 2.02 odds – 8 units play – Pinnacle

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