One of the games today, is a game between two turtles of the league, Miami Heat and Utah Jazz and that’s the game I would like to focus on.
Miami Heat – Utah Jazz
This will be a true “turtle race” tonight. Jazz are last in the league pace wise, with 94.7 and Miami not far ahead of them, ranked 28th (out of 30) with 95.5. Only Milwaukee separates the two teams.
Looking at defensive efficiency, we can see that Heat hold 2nd place, with 93.7 points and Utah fourth with 94.6 points.
Utah really doesn’t have too many scoring options, with Favors, coming in to the league as defensive anchor, that struggles on offense, suddenly becoming second scoring option for the Jazz. Hayward is a great player and a true leader of the team, but doesn’t have the flash like Bron, Kobe (at his prime), Durant or other big flashy names. Burke & Burks struggle on offense, Gobert mostly lives off put backs and dunks.
The last thing Utah wants, is to try to outscore their rivals. They play it slow, suffocate opponents by very slow pace and very good defense, making each possession and each basket much more valuable.
Miami has fire power with Bosh, Dragic and Wade – but given the age of their starting five – oldest in the league – they aren’t in a rush to play “Run and Gun” as well. Whiteside proved to be a defensive jem, not only with the shots he blocks, but also with the shots he alters and more important, with the number of shots that the rival team doesn’t even try to take, knowing he is in the paint (all of the above can be stated about Gobert as well). Chalmers was a good defender and will be missed and there is a big defensive hole in point guard position, since both Dragic and Udrih can’t defend, even if their lives depend on it. But, I doubt that Utah is the team that will exploit it, since their point guards struggle on offense as well.
If we look at the last season and a month of this season, we can see that out of 11 games, where the total set was 182 points or lower, only two went Over the total.
Out of those 11 games, 7 were games that had Utah involved and there wasn’t even a single Over in those 7 games with an average score of 171.7 points only.
I expect similar result today. I don’t believe we will see both teams reach 90 points. I expect neither team to reach 95 points and it appears to be the type of game that will finish with result like 89 – 85 or very close to it.
Under 182 points, 1.95 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle
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Best of luck everybody!!!