NBA Picks Monday MLK Day 21/01/13

Bad day last night, but should be better today.

New Orleans Hornets – Sacramento Kings
Memphis Grizzlies – Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks – Minnesota Timberwolves

Easy bet for me here. Kings won on the road last game, while Hornets had lost as favorites at home.
I rate Hornets about a level above Kings, so given how much better Hornets played at home recently and how awful Kings are, this one is a no brainer for me. Sometime we will get an upset, but I believe that both teams streaks will end today.
As for Memphis – it’s a special day there on MLK, but not only that. Memphis got few bad losses and start to make comeback. Play terrible on offense the last two games, but looks like their defense is finally sorted out.
Pacers never had problems on defense, but I believe that against Memphis offense, there is a good chance that Pacers won’t even get to 80 points and that should be enough for Memphis win.
87 – 79 sounds about right here.
As for Hawks, best bet of the day probably. Pekovic and Shved are out, so are Love, Roy and many others.
Hawks been playing better lately, but lost the last two games after even fight against good teams. Should really beat Wolves and beat them up nicely.
Wolves won’t make it to 90 points, Hawks should have 95+ points here.
97 – 83 sounds about right here.
Memphis + Hornets + Hawks to win – 2.50 odds – 8 units play – WillHill
Hawks -7.5, 1.91 odds – 4 units play – WllHill

Charlotte Bobcats – Houston Rockets

I don’t get this total. Rockets struggle greatly on offense, Charlotte been doing really nice on defense. Bookies set the line on -6.5 points, but the total they give is as if they expect Charlotte to score 105 points and blow Rockets away.
Rockets will stay below 100 points and with Charlotte finally (and suddenly) finding their defense, I think that they won’t score 100+ as well.
In the last 7 games, only once Rockets game went above this total, while all last six Charlotte games stayed below this total as well.
99 – 97 in Charlotte favor sounds about right here.
Under 207 points, 1.90 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle

NY Knicks – Brooklyn Nets

Nets improved great deal since coach changes and now they got a chance to even this series in NY derby, in the last derby of the season.
Knicks been slumping slightly and that was expected given the injuries they had, the age of the oldest team in the league and the need to integrate Amare back in to Knicks system.
Two of the three games between the teams were really even and so was most of the third game, before Knicks made a huge run in the middle of the third quarter.
In such games, every point in the line worth a lot and for me, it’s 50 – 50 game and 4 points can do all the difference in the world.
Nets +4, 1.97 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle

Portland Trailblazers – Washington Wizards

Been riding Wizards train since Wall returned to the line up and no reason to hop off now.
Portland needs this win badly and they got a shot at it and get very low line.
But having said that, Wizards been playing really well lately, simply amazing and improved defense and I wouldn’t fade them under any circumstances right now.
Portland are awful home favorite, one of the league worst and 0 – 3 ATS as 6 – 6.5 points favorites.
First win of the season Wizards made against Portland and I just don’t get the 6 points we are getting tonight.
Should have been around 4 points line.
Wizards +6, 1.97 odds – 5 units play – Pinnacle

Chicago Bulls – LA Lakers

Bulls without Rose and Deng get 97.5 points?
I realize that it’s against the terrible Lakers defense, but still, the feeling is that it’s too much.
Lakers should play better defense tonight, as they usually do in B2B spots, after losses with bad defense played. This is one of the best spots to take Lakers and the Under on the rival team.
Chicago scored above this number in regulation only three times in the last 10 games and somehow, I doubt it will be their fourth time, playing without Deng.
Chicago Under 97.5, 1.91 odds – 6 units play – 5Dimes/WillHill

System plays:

Wolves +3, 1.91 odds – 7 units play – WillHill
Pacers +2.5, 1.91 odds – 7 units play – WillHill
Under 43.5 points in Memphis, 7 units play – Pinnacle

Good luck everybody!!!

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