Today not an easy card, but few games offer some nice value, though not for great odds and I believe that the risk will pay off.
Chicago Bulls –Philadelphia 76ers
The line is a bit low and I would have really wanted to get 185 points, so keeping the bet a bit smaller than I wanted, but this is a bet I can’t skip.
Two of the top defenses in the league playing each other tonight. Looking at averages, we get 181.5 points, so we have around 2 points advantage.
Looking at 9 games teams had in 2012, they scored above this total only twice and all of their last 4 games resulted in an Under.
It’s true that Sixers games had higher than usual results lately, but I think this big enough of a game for Bulls, with playoff revenge in mind, so that they will commit themselves to defense.
Under 183.5 points, 1.93 odds – 5 units play
Miami Heat –New Jersey Nets
Not an easy game to cap, but I do believe in Nets tonight and in Under. In the only game team played each other this season, it turned in to a slaughter, with Nets losing 103 – 73 – Nets biggest loss and Heat biggest win this season so far.
But having said that, even in that game, scored stayed Under the total for overall game as well as for teams totals (including Heat total).
Lopez won’t play tonight, but Wallace, very solid LeBron defender will play and he missed the previous game between the teams.
Heat Under 101.5 points – 1.80 odds – 4 units play – Paddy Power
New Orleans Hornets -Oklahoma CityThunder
It’s hard to take big road lines, but Hornets just can’t match Thunder and it been proven many times before. Thunder won the last four games between the teams, all by 8+ points. They also 8 – 2 ATS in the last 10 games between the teams.
Hornets without their two stars, Gordon and Davis (Gordon have yet to play this season) and I fully expect Thunder to score between 100+ points while stopping the Hornets around 90 points.
Thunder -8, 1.85 odds – 6 units play – Interwetten