NBA Picks Saturday Night 18/01/14

One bet for today, but one that I like a lot.

Indiana Pacers – LA Clippers

I think that the line here is 5 points too big.
This is actually the highest total Pacers got this season and that’s a bit crazy, given their amazing Under tendency at home, you would expect the totals to drop down, not to go up, regardless of the opponent.
Pacers are 6 – 15 in favor of the Under at home and 1 – 4 in favor of the Under, playing at home Western opponent.
Clippers are 9 – 11 in favor of the Under on the road and 3 – 6 in favor of the Under, playing on the road against Eastern opponent.
That shows very clear that not only both teams have very clear Under tendency, but that tendency is even stronger under the circumstances.
On top of that, Clippers are 0 – 3 in favor of the Under, playing Eastern opponent in B2B spot on the road and 2 – 4 in favor of the Under playing B2B on the road (both games on the road).
Indiana come to this game off two straight Over results. In the entire season so far, Indiana didn’t have three Over results in a row (once there was a Push after two Over results).
As the final stat, looking at home/ road results, we get 99 – 91.5 as average score for the teams, so we get about 7 points too much for this total.
Bottom line is that this is pure stats bet, but one, where really all the logic and the trends support the stats and I will take the bet in such sweet spot.
Under 197.5 points, 1.93 odds – 8 units play – Pinnacle

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