NBA Picks Saturday Night 29/12/12

The system lately makes small problems and tweaking it takes time and maybe that hurt a bit the cutting off plays process, but today I hope and believe things will turn around.

Memphis Grizzlies – Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves – Phoenix Suns

Brooklyn Nets – Cleveland Cavaliers

I will try this parlay today and I see no special reason for it to lose.

Memphis lost twice this season to Denver, including home loss and after two straight losses to Houston on the road and Sixers at home (without Gay) and will be fully motivated.

Denver will be playing fourth game in five nights and come to it with two wins straight against two Western rivals. If they will beat Memphis, I will take my hat off to them, but I just can’t see it happening, unless Denver will be raining three pointers.

Nets should continue to gather wins at home against poor opponents, especially withCleveland coming without Varejao and Gibson.

Coach changes usually do wonders to teams and here I doubt anything will change.

Suns are the worst in the league in B2B spots, with 0 from 6 in such spots.

They also have Dragic questionable and after giving huge effort in fourth quarter, just to come short in the end.

The more Wolves play together and the more minutes Rubio and Love on the floor, shaking off rust, the more chances I see for Wolves to get better and better.

Suns are crazy team and this is actually the most dangerous game from the three in this parlay, but I still like Wolves chances here.

Memphis + Minnesota + Brooklyn to win, 2.18 odds – 7 units play – WillHill

Memphis -6, 1.94 odds – 2 units play – Marathonbet

Minnesota -8, 1.92 odds – 2 units play Marathonbet

Brooklyn -8, 1.92 odds – 2 units play – Expekt

 

Milwaukee Bucks – Miami Heat

Houston Rockets – Oklahoma Thunder

Bucks are a terrible team as home underdog, going 0 – 4 ATS (and SU of course) this season.

Heat will have Wade back and with tomorrow LeBron’s birthday, I doubt they will give him a present of two straight losses in two nights.

Heat needed an OT to beat the Bucks in Miami earlier this season and that I hope will be in their minds and they will be ready to play from tip off.

Houston can win Oklahoma and the Harden against Thunder and Martin against Rockets factor makes it even harder, but still, this is a risk I’m willing to take.

Houston with their fourth game in five nights and get two very hard rivals, playing B2B, Spurs and Thunder.

Thunder lost two straight and than needed an OT to beat Dallas. They are ready, pissed and dangerous.

It may be hard, it may be close, but Thunder should come out from this game with their hand on top.

Heat and Thunder to win, 2.50 odds – 5 units play – Expekt

Heat -4, 1.93 odds – 2 units play – Pinnacle

Thunder -4, 1.93 odds – 2 units play – Pinnacle

 

Golden State Warriors – Boston Celtics

I just love the Over in first leg of B2B in Boston games angle. 5 Over results in 7 games, teams are 9O – 5U with such totals and 16O – 10U with 1 day’s rest.

I believe that at least one team will get to 100 points and the other will get to 90+ points.

So as long as it’s not 101 – 92 points or something cruel like that, we should be fine here.

Boston this time won’t face Clippers great defense and GSW allows rival teams to score points in their home.

103 – 97 sounds about right here, maybe even slightly higher.

Over 194.5, 1.94 odds – 7 units play – Pinnacle

 

Other leans:

Hawks -3 (if Smith is playing)

Wizards +10.5 – Chicago 2 – 10 ATS as home favorite

 

System plays (1st quarter bets):

Under 46.5 points in Atlanta – 1.90 odds – 5 units play – Marathonbet

Under 50 points in Milwaukee – 1.90 odds – 6 units play – Marathonbet

Under 49.5 points in Memphis – 1.90 odds – 5 units play – Marathonbet

Hornets -1 – 1.90 odds – 5 units play – WillHill

Three system plays that were skipped:

Under 46 in Chicago

Under 49.5 in Minnesota

Pacers +1.5

 

Good luck everybody!!!

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