NBA Picks Saturday Night NBA 23/11/12

After very nice results recently, it’s important to remember that there will be great nights and there will be nights where things won’t go our way and it’s important to have discipline in good and bad streaks. Today we got a night full of games, but lines as starting to be more and more accurate, so just few plays tonight. 

Dallas Maverics – LA Lakers

Dallas swept the Lakers in 10/11 NBA Playoffs and Lakers responded last season with a sweep of Dallas in regular season.

This season, in season opener, Lakers hosted Dallas, that played without Dirk, but Dallas surprised them, in what    turned out to be, one of the last games of Mike Brown as Lakers coach. He used wrong offense for this Lakers roster and couldn’t coach the team.

Since then, Lakers improved much, but come tonight to Dallas, playing 4th game in 5 nights, carrying three losses in a row. While many will claim that playing 4 games in 5 nights means fatigue, I believe that Lakers, that started this week in positive record and fell to negative one, will do their best, not to lose for the fourth time and against much weaker team than them, playing without their main player, they will handle buisness.

Dallas and Lakers are known to win each other on the road and looking at roster, motivation and schedule spot, it’s hard to think of a better chance for the Lakers to beat Dallas and we can take advantage of such a short line to bet on them.

Lakers -1, 1.91 odds – 8 units play – Bwin/ 188bet (and many others)

Atlanta Hawks – Los Angeles Clippers

Just like last night’s game against the Nets, Clippers have no buisness being favorites against team of their level, playing on the road.

Hawks are deeper and while Clippers have advantage in Chris Paul, they will struggle a lot on the road this season and the right line here should have been -2 for the Hawks.

Hawks off 4 wins straight, in really good form and were +6.5 points dogs only two weeks ago in Staples Center.

I don’t know why bookies set the line the way they did, but no reason not to take advantage of that.

Hawks to win, 2.15 odds – 4 units play – Bwin

Philadelphia 76ers – Oklahoma City Thunder

The statistic average for this game should be 188 – 188.5 points. Looking at the tempo of the game and trends of the teams after losses, even that seems a bit too high and total of 186 – 187 points seems much more accurate here.

After conceding 100+ points only once in the first 9 games of the season, Thunder conceded that much in 4 of the last 5. Thunder been talking about playing much better defense lately and it worked actually against both Clippers and Boston, but there were few minutes of overlapse in both games, where the second team scored 8 – 10 points in one minute. I believe it won’t be the case today, due to the idnetity of the rival team.

Sixers not a high tempo team, but a team that plays strong defense and thrives off energies. They started the season mediocre on defense, but really made a defensive effort lately, stopping their opponents below 100 points in the last 5 games, stopping their rivals on 91 points only during that time.

I believe strongly that neither team will reach 100 points tonight and I expect 95 – 91 type of game here.

Under 193 points, 1.85 odds – 6 units play – Pinnacle

Few words about other games tonight:

Milwaukee – Chicago

Bulls with three straight losses fell below 50% for the first time this season. Bucks have a great run in the beginning of the season, but it’s not a Top 4 team in the East. Chicago won the last 8 games against the Bucks and while I’m a bit worried about motivation for both sides here, I believe that it should be a good idea to try Bulls for a win tonight.

Washington – Charlotte 

I think that it’s not surprising that tonight’s game will face the worst team in the league against one of the surprising ones. But, I think that most would have thought that Charlotte will be the worst team in the league in such scenario and Wizards would have been the surprise and not the other way around.

Wizards are 0- 10 this season and while it’s very risky to take the with the line, I do believe they will win and think that a live bet on Wizards, in case that Charlotte start out well or Wizards to win in a parlay, can be a very good bet.

Golden State – Minnesota

 Wolves play decent ball lately, but can’t catch a break. Tonight they get another chance, playing on the road against the Warriors.

Wolves in the middle of a road trip and can’t go back home to get the first W with Love and this is a chance they shouldn’t miss.

Small bet on Minny to win is worth a risk I think.

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