NBA Picks Sunday Night 09/12/12

I don’t see any really strong bets today, but I do see few nice one that we should try with small stakes.

Oklahoma Thunder –Indiana Pacers

This not the easiest game to cap, because there are several trends that contradict each other, but in the end, there is one bet that I believe should cash in today and that is Oklahoma Over 103 points play.

I wanted to take overall Over, but Pacers games, despite their Over trend, reached the total set for today only once this season.

I wanted to play Oklahoma-10, because of the huge difference between the teams, but I just feel that it’s a lot to lay against pretty good team.

Why Over TT on Oklahoma? First of all, Pacers should score 90 – 95 points tonight, so for Thunder to cover, they will need to score 100+ points themselves.

Second reason, Thunder on a great run, scoring 100+ points each game and while it’s true that Pacers conceded 100+ points in regulation only once the entire season, can’t think of a better place than Oklahoma for that second time to happen.

In the end, Pacers play better recently and that shows mainly through offense.

Thunder, if they want an easy win, will have to score 100+ points tonight and they are used to crossing this line.

It possible that Thunder will score 100 – 103 points and the bet won’t win, but I will bet that Thunder can score here today 105 – 107 points and win us our bet.

Thunder Over 103 points, 1.91 odds- 5 units play – Pinnacle

Brooklyn Nets –Milwaukee Bucks

Obviously things change and nothing stays forever and Nets changed not only their roster, but even the city they play in, but still, looking at H2H here, with Bucks making 10 – 0 both SU and ATS, makes me really uncomfortable taking the Nets to cover here.

On the other hand, Nets are much better team and surely want to get some revenge.

Nets played some horrible second halves several times this season – but actually pretty decent first halves.

Lopez is out, but with Blatche and Evans, I feel that Nets have adequate cover in that position and I fully expect Nets to win the first half and hopefully cover as well.

Nets -3 at HT, 1.95 odds – 5 units play – Pinnacle

New York Knicks –Denver Nuggets

It was pretty obvious that playing 4 games in 5 nights will make Knicks choose for what games to show up and it was obvious that they will try to show up for games against Miami and the Nuggets.

Melo against his former team is always a story – that is also why he didn’t play against Chicago, despite probably being able to do so.

Knicks at home are 7 – 0, winning on average by 15.3 points. On the other hand, Denver off a win against Indy, but are 5 – 9 on the road and while they had some really nice wins, like the win in Memphis, they are very mediocre at best team on the road.

Many on the net backing the Nuggets, mainly because of fatigue questions for the Knicks.

But as I can see, Nuggets have no chance stopping Knicks three pointers and Knicks are much smarter than them basketball team.

Knicks -4.5, 1.93 odds – 5 units play – Pinnacle

LA Lakers – Utah Jazz

Utah are a very poor road team, with a record of 3 – 9, but still ahead of the Lakers with overall record of 11- 10, due  amazing 8 – 1 home record.

Lakers are 9 – 11 and after tonight’s game, go to 4 games road trip. They need to get to 50% and don’t stop there.

In order to do that, they need to win Utah at home – Conference rival with a revenge angle, losing to them in Utah and beat Cleveland in Clevelandafter that.

With Lakers coming from a rest and resting tomorrow, they should be focused enough to easily score 110+ points and win this one.

113 – 98 sounds about right here.

Lakers -6.5, 1.91 odds – 5 units play – Betway

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