NBA Subscription Picks Sunday Night 09/06/13

Game 1 went as expected and hopefully this trend will continue.





Miami Heat – SA Spurs

The series started as expected, with Spurs being a but more rusted, but more fresh, so while they start a bit slowly, in the end, you could see that Heat were out of air, while Spurs did what needed to be done.
Spurs big test will be in Game 3 and 4, that will be with only one day’s rest and both are at home – where Heat will be looking to take back the home court advantage they lost in Game 1.
But, as far as Game 2 goes, there are few things that really important for me to highlight.
First of all, Heat haven’t lost two in a row since January this season. Second, Joe Crawford, the ref that hates Spurs and Spurs hate him, is the ref here.
Just this season, Duncan and Parker mocked him and pretended like they are shooting him on Haloween and it went viral and Joe probably wasn’t too happy about it.
Third very important fact is that Spurs basically did what they wanted, won one of the two first road games.
Now they need to win three home games and they are NBA Champions. In the matter of fact, they can go Dallas on Miami and win only two in SA and come back to Miami and win one of the two games there to finish the job.
Miami need this one and need it badly.
They can’t afford to lose this game, because it will be game/ set/ match for them if they lose.
They won’t rebound from that and I expect they will do what they can to not only win, but to do it in a way that won’t jeopardize their win in the final minute. You don’t want such a huge game to come down to a last second chance to lose.
Heat started the game well, but just disappeared in the second half. I really doubt they will pull a Houdini act again in second half at home.

Now to the bad news and there are those as well. Crawford hates Spurs, but the world knows it and the eyes will be on him. I saw many times that refs that are “known” for hating certain team, go out of their way, to prove it isn’t the case.
Second and most important thing to remember about Joe, is that he loves to steal the show. He likes nothing more than when home crowd is booing him and that’s bad news for the Heat.
But, refs aside, there are few more bad news for Heat backers. Spurs won Game 1, despite playing not that great. Duncan started the game with 0 from 5 from midrange – his bread and butter. Spurs missed few crucial three pointers, going 0 from 5 (or 6) deep in the third quarter, down 2 or 3 points (depends on the minute).
Spurs can play better and score 94 – 96 points as well, if not higher.
On top of that, ESPN pounded to our mind the entire weekend, that Heat haven’t lost two in a row since January.
Every capper that I know and many bettors, all on Miami.
I honestly don’t know even one person that took Spurs in Game 2.
The feeling is that if Heat win and cover, books can go bankrupt – something that obviously doesn’t happen too often.
I hate to be on the public’s side of a public bet and this one as public as they come.
That’s why the Over is the back up plan here.
Spurs will score their points. Heat will score their as well.
Both teams played mediocre on offense in Game 1 and should improve.
If Spurs somehow win this game, it is only because they made 97+ points, because Heat will score 95+ points today.
My prediction is 103 – 94 in Heat’s favor.
Over 188, 1.98 odds – 7 units play – Expekt
Heat -6, 1.95 odds – 9 units play – Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!

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