Game 5 is a pivotal game with the series tied 2 – 2 and you can double it, given the fact that Spurs have yet to lose a series after winning Game 5 in similar situations, not to mention that 2011 NBA Finals, Heat finished losing 2 – 4 to Dallas, after coming to Game 5 tied 2 – 2.
SA Spurs – Miami Heat
I fully expect 2011 NBA Finals to happen yet again in this year’s Finals, but I will focus in this game for now.
Game 4 in the Finals reminded me a lot Game 3 in ECF this season. Heat came to Indiana tied 1 – 1 and LeBron led the Heat to their only win in Indiana (out of 3 games).
Just like Game 4 on Thursday, LeBron in that game, played mostly in the paint, scoring his first mid range points late in garbage time of the fourth quarter.
Back then, many thought that Heat found the formula, with small ball starting unit, how to beat the Pacers. In hindsight, it was their only win in Indiana and Pacers won the next two games after that, with LeBron playing poorly in Game 4 already.
That brings me to my rant about this season’s Finals.
Teams appear as if it’s preseason games and not the Finals. Game 1, both teams put in all that they had.
Since then, teams that need the win less, simply don’t show up.
It started with 19 points loss by the Spurs in Game 2, continued in Heat getting blown away by 36 points in Game 3, where they seemed as if they couldn’t care less and Game 4, you seen Spurs hardly trying to play basketball.
If Game 3 you could see Timmy coming to help Green/ Lenard against LeBron, this time, Spurs simply were one step slower and just hardly tried to do anything.
I can mention many plays where the team that just won the game before, suddenly played flat, but it’s the overall feeling that I just can’t understand.
You got 4 – 7 games left till the end of the season and the Championship is on the line. How can you allow yourself to take games off?
Anyway, this time, it’s Heat’s time to take the foot off the gas, knowing that even if the lose, they will play the next two games at home for the title.
Spurs on the other hand, know that it’s a must win game for them.
Heat zigzagged in their last 11 games and I really don’t see how it will change tonight.
Heat in Game 2 and Spurs in Game 5, are the two most obvious bets in this series so far and the fact that bookies somehow didn’t make Spurs favorites is just mind blowing.
LeBron won’t play under the rim again. He won’t try to do that and Spurs won’t allow that as well.
Wade won’t play as perfect as he played in Game 4, where he played his best game since 2006.
Timmy, TP (second half) and Manu can’t play any worse than they did
Parker had three days to rest his injury, Manu and Pop had three days to find ways for Manu to contribute and Spurs should score around 100 points and win (easily).
On top of that, obvious value in my eyes in the bet on the Spurs Over.
It was heart breaking the way the Over came up voided in Game 4, with few missed free throws, but this time, I see no reason on earth for that to happen again.
102 – 87 for the Spurs sounds about right here.
Spurs to win, 2.08 odds – 9 units play – Pinnacle
Spurs Over 93 points, 1.83 odds – 7 units play – 10Bet
Best of luck everybody!!!