I am still working on Eurobasket preview and most probably will post first part tonight in the evening.
Detroit Shock – Indiana Fever
Both teams are motivated here. Detroit is fighting for playoff spot and Indiana is competing for WNBA regular season title which gives home court advantage in playoff. Detroit most probably without one of their leading scorer K.Smith while Indiana has K.Douglas (offensive leader too) listed as day-to-day. I am not sure who will win this match however I am tending to see Shock as true favorites of this game even without Smith. But as for total I see some value.
These teams always play low tempo games when play each other. This season they have met 3 times and had 164. 166 and 174 possessions games while their season averages are much higher (182 and 185 posessions per game). One more thing to notice is that bookies set 143.5, 139.5 and 146.5 and total lines for those matches and results were 54-66, 70-82 and 52-89 respectively.
For tonight game we have 150.5 line and the only reason of such total is that Detroit have 82-80.5 averages in last 10 games. But they played fast-paces and attacking teams mostly. Tonight I expect another hard defensive game and I would not be suprised if this game would end with total under 140 points but fair line as for me should be 72.5-70.5.
My prediction: Detroit 74 – 69 Indiana
Pick: Under 150.5 @ 1.91 5/10 Ladbrokes