Kostas Sloukas and Jan Vesely will not play against Zalgiris. Due that news Zalgiris odds have shortened and handicap moved from +4 to +2.5. These are players important for Zeljko Obradovic, because Sloukas is typical PG, who makes other players better. Czech center is their starting center and without him their rotation will be different.
Zalgiris without any roster problems and with huge motivation to continue they run for playoffs. At the momemnt they are playing great team basketball, which is based on defense and collective offense.
In first round gamed ended 68:82 and only 137 attacks were done. Tonight I expect the same slow pace, but this time Fenerbahce would not be able to show their offensive performance from first game, when they scored 9/19 from 3 pts and 21/22 from FT. Zalgiris also tends to struggle offensively against defensive pressure. Stats are talking for underish game too:
- Home avg. pace: 144 attacks (-)
- Home avg. scoring range: 1,05-1,13 pts/attack
- Away average pace: 138 attacks (-)
- Away avg. scoring: 1.02-1,14 pts/attack
- Expected pace: 135 attacks
- Expected total range: 138-153 points
As for the outcome I see this game as 50/50 chance for Zalgiris to add another important victory to their balance. They will have huge crowd support tonight, because this is first time when 8 free buses from Vilnius did fan transfer to Kaunas and back. And sure everyone in Kaunas knows how important are left home games. If line would be +4.5 I would take also handicap, but now value is minimal.
Pick: Under 156 @ 1.95 Pinnacle* WON
*odds & line at pick release time